Russia recently “elected” its new President Dmitry Medvedev to follow Vladimir Putin. Many are writing off this change as nothing more than window dressing and expect Putin to continue to hold most of the political power. This may be the case especially due to the current structure of elites, where you have different factions fighting over control of private and public resources, each with the backing of their own security services.

However, there are small signs that he may put his own spin on the Russian political scene. Medvedev is probably slightly less beholden to security services and more closely connected with the economic liberals in the state, elite bureaucracy. The liberal faction and the Siloviki have increasingly been at loggerheads over the past couple years with each side using the courts, prosecutor’s office, FSB (KGB successor), and Drug police to push their own interests at the expense of the other side. Major flashpoints have included the natural resource monopolies such as Gasprom and Rosneft along with the state controlled arms exporter, Rosoroboroneksport, which has been expanding its international commitments and visibility substantially.

So, what will the next 4 years look like under Medvedev? An increase in prominence of the liberal St. Petersburg Liberals, or the strengthening of the FSB aligned organizations? I think initially the liberals will gain in influence, especially as people become tiresome of the corruption that reigns at the local level. The state control of national industries is not really about nationalization and the common good but the pocketbooks of powerful bureaucrats and politicians. State action for “the people” is really just a mask for appropriation by another group of criminals. It is the 90’s only the owners happen to be state representatives who are buying nice dachas.

I then predict a big push, motivated by declining oil and gas production yields due to low investment, towards reducing corruption in the major state industries and possibly more partnerships with western companies. Russia will not be able to fulfill all the export contracts it has signed and will end up in a bind reducing its position as the energy provider of first resort for Europe. Russia’s quick rise to prominence over the last 7 years will then collapse as the domestic situation continues to get worse and unrest grows.

The Putin high can only last so long and eventually major change will occur. Whether this becomes a gradual change to political liberal democracy or more authoritarian rule is anyone’s guess, but I would hazard to guess the hybrid Putin created is over. Only time will tell and I can only provide my thoughts as a starting point. What does anyone else think?

This entry was posted on Saturday, March 15th, 2008 at 10:53 am and is filed under News, Politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.